Last week, the UN released its 2025 Global Methane Pledge report. At 147 pages, the report is dense. Oilfield Witness waded through it so you don’t have too. While framed in an optimistic light, the report’s findings are grim:
- Even if the fossil fuel industry implemented every feasible methane control technology at every site across the entire globe, the report still concludes that that would not be sufficient to reduce emissions enough to achieve the IPCC 1.5℃ warming scenario.
- This leads the UN to conclude that we cannot just reduce emissions from oil and gas emissions, we must also reduce oil and gas production.
- Over one third of anthropogenic methane is from fossil fuel production. The other 2/3rds are primarily from the waste and agriculture sectors. However, emissions reductions in those sectors will take longer to scale globally. This leads the UN to conclude that fossil fuel emissions reductions should be “maximized to enable the world to meet its near-term climate and methane-related targets, such as the GMP.”
- While the UN concludes that there are some technologies that exist that may be able to reduce fossil fuel methane emissions at low costs the UN also concludes that market forces may not encourage reductions “especially when competing with potential investment in additional oil and gas production.”.
- Unsurprisingly given the continued expansion of fossil fuel production, 5 years after the Global Methane Pledge brought over 150 countries together to commit to reducing global methane emissions by 30% by 2030, methane emissions are higher than they were before the pledge.
- Even accounting for all of the existing methane legislation passed across the globe in the wake of the Global Methane Pledge, emissions will be 5% higher in 2030 instead of the pledged 30% lower.
- Those additional emissions will lead to 24,000 additional premature deaths and over $40 billion in economic damages relative to 2020.
- 127 countries have committed to specific reductions in methane emissions but even if all 127 countries passed actual legislation to achieve those commitments, global methane emissions would only be reduced by 8% relative to 2020, falling far short of the 30% goal set by the pledge.
- The U.S. is among the worst offenders in failing to adhere to the pledge. The U.S. is the second largest gross emitter of methane in the world. Despite being one of the earliest major methane emitting countries to adopt methane emissions regulations, the U.S. is in the process of rolling back methane regulations. Every other oil and gas producing region has begun adopting methane regulations. From China and Kazakhstan to the EU and Japan, the U.S. is being left behind.
- The UN also notes that despite increasing interest in satellite monitoring of methane emissions there is a significant risk that satellite inventories may not be fully capturing all emissions. In fact, they note that new research is showing that emissions below the detection threshold for satellites may “account for a large proportion of total emissions.”
Despite flashy regulations and corporate initiatives, we are far from achieving climate goals. The globe, but the U.S. in particular, must accept that the oil and gas industry cannot persist in its current form if the Earth is going to achieve climate goals.
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